5 NFL Matchups to Watch Sunday
NFL Week 4 brings an AFC East showdown between New England and undefeated Buffalo, an NFC matchup between the Rams and Eagles, plus three more games worth breaking down before Sunday's kickoffs.
The Sunday, October 4, 2026 NFL schedule features a full Week 4 board, and five games stand out for today's AI Smart Picks analysis.
The early window includes New England at Buffalo, Jacksonville at Cincinnati and Los Angeles at Philadelphia.
Later, Miami visits Minnesota at 4:05 PM ET before Denver travels to San Francisco for a 4:25 PM ET kickoff.
The five matchups include undefeated teams, divisional familiarity, teams trying to rebound from Week 3 losses and several developing injury situations. The goal is to identify which factors actually matter rather than reacting only to records or last week's final scores.
5 Sunday NFL Games to Watch
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo puts its undefeated start on the line against an AFC East rival trying to rebound from a difficult Week 3.
Patriots vs. Bills
Buffalo enters Sunday's divisional matchup at 3-0, while New England makes the trip to Buffalo at 1-2.
The Patriots are coming off a difficult loss to Jacksonville and now face a Buffalo team that has opened the season with three consecutive victories.
For New England, the matchup begins with avoiding self-inflicted mistakes. Negative plays and turnovers become even more damaging against a Buffalo offense capable of creating explosive scoring opportunities.
Josh Allen remains central to Buffalo's offense because of the pressure his combination of passing, movement and off-schedule playmaking puts on a defense.
The Patriots' challenge is creating enough disruption without allowing Allen's ability outside structure to turn pressure into explosive plays.
3-0 Start
Buffalo enters Week 4 undefeated and has another opportunity to strengthen its early position inside the AFC East.
Limit Mistakes
New England needs cleaner possessions and cannot consistently give Buffalo favorable field position.
Containing Allen
Pressure only helps if the defense maintains discipline when Allen extends plays outside the original structure.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Two teams coming off prime-time losses meet in Philadelphia looking for an immediate response.
Los Angeles Needs a Response
The Rams enter Philadelphia after a close Week 3 loss at Denver. At 1-2, the challenge is preventing one disappointing result from carrying into another difficult road matchup.
Matthew Stafford gives Los Angeles an experienced quarterback capable of attacking different defensive structures, but the Rams still need to create favorable down-and-distance situations.
Philadelphia Returns Home
Philadelphia also enters Sunday looking to respond after losing its Monday night matchup in Chicago.
That creates an important handicapping question: was the Chicago performance evidence of a larger problem, or simply one poor game inside a long season?
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Jaguars Carry Momentum
Jacksonville enters Cincinnati at 2-1 after a convincing Week 3 performance against New England.
The challenge is determining how much weight to give that performance. Strong handicapping requires understanding why a team succeeded rather than simply assuming the same result will repeat.
Same Record, Different Path
Both teams enter this matchup at 2-1, making the underlying quality of their performances more important than simply comparing records.
Situational football can become decisive when two teams have produced similar early-season results.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Pressure Is Building
Miami enters Week 4 searching for its first victory, creating a different psychological and tactical situation from Minnesota's undefeated start.
An 0-3 record can create urgency, but urgency alone is not a handicapping reason. Miami still has to demonstrate that it can correct the issues behind its start.
Protecting an Undefeated Start
Minnesota enters Sunday at 3-0 and now faces a winless opponent at home.
That record disparity makes this exactly the type of matchup where bettors need to separate team strength from market price.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
Broncos Take the Momentum West
Denver enters this matchup after defeating the Rams in Week 3 and now faces another NFC West opponent.
The important question is whether the strengths Denver displayed last week translate against a different opponent and different offensive structure.
49ers Back at Home
San Francisco returns home after beating Arizona in Week 3. The matchup with Denver presents a different challenge, particularly in the trenches.
Rather than simply comparing last week's results, bettors should evaluate which team's strengths are more likely to survive this specific matchup.
Records Tell You Where Teams Are — Not Why
Sunday's five games provide several examples of why win-loss records should be the beginning of NFL analysis rather than the end.
Buffalo and Minnesota enter undefeated. Miami enters winless. Jacksonville and Cincinnati share the same record. The Rams and Eagles are both trying to respond to losses.
Those records provide context, but the stronger question is whether the underlying performances that created them are sustainable.
Check Availability
Late-week injury information can materially change an NFL matchup, especially at quarterback, offensive line and premium skill positions.
Project the Game
Determine which team benefits if the game becomes fast, slow, high-scoring or possession-oriented.
Evaluate the Number
Knowing which team appears stronger does not automatically identify which side offers the stronger position against the market.
4 Things to Check Before Sunday's Games
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Five Sunday matchups. Five different handicapping situations. See today's AI Smart Picks NFL analysis before kickoff.